as russia continues to pound kyiv, western sanctions are beginning to cripple arctic lng 2, the aggressor's largest gas-export project. in the red sea, through which 10% of the world's seaborne oil tr**els, american forces are doing their best to repel drone attacks by yemen's houthi rebels. on january 3rd local protests shut down production at a crucial libyan oilfield. a severe drought in the amazon risks hampering maize shipments from brazil, the world's largest exporter of the grain.
随着俄罗斯继续袭击基辅，西方制裁开始削弱侵略者最大的天然气出口项目——北极液化天然气 2 号项目。 在红海，世界上10%的海上石油通过红海运输，美国团队正在尽最大努力击退也门胡塞叛乱分子的无人机袭击。 1月3日，当地活动导致利比亚一个主要油田停产。 亚马逊地区的严重干旱可能会阻碍全球最大玉米出口国巴西的玉米运输。
and yet, across commodity markets, calm somehow prevails. after a couple of years of double-digit rises, the bloomberg commodity index, a benchmark that covers raw-material prices, fell by more than 10% in 2023 . oil prices, at a little under $80 a barrel, are down by 12% over the past quarter and are therefore well below the levels of 2022. european gas prices hover near their lowest levels in two years. grains and metals are also cheap. pundits expect more of the same this year. what, exactly, would it take to rock markets?
然而，在整个大宗商品市场中，领奖台仍然以某种方式占上风。 在经历了几年两位数的下跌后，作为原材料基准**的彭博大宗商品指数在2023年下跌了10%以上。 油价略低于每桶 80 美元，上个季度上涨了 12%，因此远低于 2022 年的水平。 欧洲天然气**徘徊在两年来的最低水平附近。 谷物和金属也很便宜。 专家预计今年会有更多这样的情况发生。 究竟需要什么才能撼动市场？
after successive shocks inflamed prices in the early 2020s, markets h**e adapted. demand, held back by suppressed consumption, has been relatively restrained. but it is the supply response to elevated prices, in the form of an increase in output and a reshuffling of trade flows, that makes the world more shockproof today. investors are relaxed because supply levels for many commodities look better than they h**e since the late 2010s.
在本世纪20年代初的一系列冲击之后，市场已经适应了。 被消费抑制的需求低迷相对受到抑制。 但这是对产量增加和流量重新洗牌的反应，这使得当今世界更具抗冲击性。 投资者感到放松，因为许多大宗商品的**水平看起来比2010年代末以来要好。
take oil, for instance. in 2023 increased production from countries outside the organisation of the petroleum exporting countries and its allies, a group known as opec plus, was sufficient to cover the rise in global demand. this pushed the alliance to cut its output by some 2.2 million barrels per day , an amount equivalent to 2% of global supply, in a bid to keep prices stable. nevertheless, the market only just fell short of surplus in the final quarter. kpler, a data firm, predicts an **erage oversupply of 550,000 b/d in the first four months of 2024, which would be enough to replenish stocks by nearly as much as they declined during the heated summer months. new barrels will come from brazil, guyana and especially america, where efficiency gains are **up for a fall in rig count.
以石油为例。 2023年，石油输出国组织（欧佩克+）及其盟国以外的国家增加了足以满足全球需求增长的产量。 这促使欧佩克每天减产约220万桶，相当于全球最重要产量的2%。 为了保持稳定。 尽管如此，市场仅略低于上一季度的盈余。 数据公司开普勒（Kepler）预计，2024年前四个月平均每天将过剩55万桶。 这足以补充几乎与炎热夏季下降的库存一样多的库存。 新石油将来自巴西、圭亚那，尤其是美国，那里的钻井平台数量的下降已经通过提高效率得到了补偿。
in europe manic buying since the start of russia's war and a mild winter h**e helped keep gas-storage levels at around 90% of capacity, well above the five-year **erage. assuming normal weather and no big disruptions, they should remain close to 70% full by the end of march, predicts rystad energy, a consultancy, easily beating the european commission's target of 45% by february 1st. ample stocks will hold gas prices down, not just in europe but also in asia, in turn incentivising more coal-to-gas switching in power generation everywhere. this will help lower coal prices already dulled by a huge ramp-up in production in china and india.
在欧洲，自俄罗斯战争开始以来，购买狂潮和温和的冬季有助于将天然气储存水平保持在90%左右，远高于五年平均水平。 假设天气正常且没有重大中断，咨询公司Rystad Energy**在3月底之前应该保持近70%的满负荷，轻松超过欧盟委员会在2月1日之前设定的45%的目标。 充足的库存将压低天然气**，不仅在欧洲，而且在亚洲。 反过来，鼓励在世界各地的发电中更多地使用煤改气。 这将有助于降低煤炭**，煤炭已经因中国和印度的大幅增产而受到抑制。
mined supply of lithium and nickel is also booming; that of cobalt, a by-product of copper and nickel production, remains robust, dampening green-metal prices. increased planting of grains and soyabeans (outside ukraine) and clement weather are prompting pundits to project record output in 2024-25, after a lush 2023-2024. that will push the **erage stocks-to-use ratio at food exporters, a key determinant of prices, from 13% to 16%, a level they last saw in 2018-2019, says rabobank, a dutch lender.
锂和镍开采**也在蓬勃发展; 钴是铜和镍生产的副产品，但仍然强劲，压低了绿色金属。 谷物和大豆播种面积增加（乌克兰以外）和温和的天气促使专家们在经历了2023-2024年度的丰收后，在2024-25年度创下了创纪录的产量。 荷兰合作银行表示，这将使粮食出口国的平均库存利用率从2018-2019年的上一次水平从13%提高到16%。
abundant supply suggests a sedate first half of the year. after that, surpluses could narrow. non-opec oil output may level off. delays at some american liquefaction-terminal projects, which were originally set to start exporting in 2024, will frustrate europe's efforts to restock gas. low grain prices will crush farmers' margins, threatening planting. markets will be more exposed to shocks, of which three stand out: a sharp economic rebound, bad weather and military blow-ups.
**的丰富表明今年上半年局势平静。 在那之后，盈余可能会收窄。 非欧佩克国家的石油产量可能会趋于平稳。 原定于2024年开始出口的美国一些液化终端项目的延误将挫败欧洲补充天然气的努力。 低粮价将挤压农民的利润并威胁种植业。 市场将更容易受到冲击，其中有三点尤为突出：庞大的经济状况**、恶劣的天气和军事冲突。
whether or not big economies **oid a recession, the pace of global growth is expected to be slow, implying modest growth in raw-material demand. inflation is also expected to ebb, so commodities will h**e less appeal as a financial hedge.
无论大型经济体能否避免衰退，预计全球经济增长速度都将缓慢，这意味着对原材料的需求将适度增加。 预计通胀也将下降，使大宗商品作为金融对冲的吸引力降低。