近日，辽宁大学教授于妙杰入选2023年“IEA院士奖”名单。 俞妙杰教授是第十四届全国人大代表、辽宁省第十四届人大常委会委员、辽宁大学党委副书记、校长，是继清华大学钱颖仪教授之后，第四位获得国际经济学会院士衔的中国经济学家。 中国社科院吴景廉教授、北京大学林义夫教授，2023年全球12位“国际经济协会院士”中唯一一位来自中国的经济学家。本期精选于妙杰教授在JTP平台上的6篇双语文章，欢迎阅读！
精选文章
中间投入的自由化和企业在劳动力市场上的市场力量。
input trade liberalization and firms’ labor market power
[摘要]。本文从不完全竞争的劳动力市场的角度出发，考察了以降低中间投入品进口关税为代表的自由化对劳动力市场企业市场力量的影响。 本文利用中国工业企业数据和海关数据，在企业层面构建了中间投入品的进口关税。 实证研究表明，降低中间投入品进口关税，扩大了企业的产出规模，提高了中间投入要素的比重，通过节约成本效应和要素替代效应，使企业向产业上游转移，从而增强了企业的劳动力市场力量。 这一结果对于不同的劳动力市场力量指标、中间投入品进口关税指标和回归样本都是稳健的。 在实施自由化的同时，要限制企业在劳动力市场上的勾结，提供多样化、完整的职业培训和完善的公共服务，增强劳动力市场的流动性和竞争力，保障劳动者的权益。
【abstract】before and after joining the wto in 2001, china slashed import tariffs and liberalized trade. however, at the same time, the proportion of china’s labor income has been declining, and the lag of labor compensation growth has been increasing. to explain this phenomenon, existing literature explored the impact of trade liberalization on china’s labor income, labor productivity, and labor income share. however, these studies ignored the imperfect competitiveness of the labor market. labor economics literature highlighted that when the labor market is not perfectly competitive, firms can use their market power in the labor market to lower wages below the value created by workers, resulting in wage markdown, and ultimately reducing labor income. therefore, based on the imperfect competitiveness of the labor market, this **explores the impact of trade liberalization, represented by import tariff reductions, on the firms’ labor market power, complementing existing literature on the influence of trade on labor income share.this **uses the matching data of china’s industrial enterprise database and customs database from 2000 to 2006 for empirical research. the empirical results show that the reduction of intermediate input import tariffs has both a cost s**ing effect and a factor substitution effect. specifically, when the tariff on intermediate inputs falls, firms can import them at a lower price, which is reflected in the increase in the proportion of imported intermediate inputs of enterprises, and at the same time move to the upstream industries that use these inputs more intensively, such that the output scale of firms expands and, ultimately, firms’ market power in the labor market increases. at the same time, the reduction of import tariffs on final goods has no significant impact on the firms’ labor market power.the contribution of this **to existing literature relates to the following three aspects. first, this **more accurately measures the level of trade liberalization of intermediate inputs faced by firms. since chinese firms often import a variety of products and cover multiple industries, industry tariffs cannot accurately reflect the true trade barriers faced by firms. at the same time, the construction of intermediate input tariffs at the industry level requires the use of input-output tables. on the one hand, this would mix domestic intermediate inputs with imported intermediate inputs, where the former is not directly affected by trade liberalization. on the other hand, the construction of the input-output table is based on large-scale enterprises, which will cause sample selection problems. in addition, during the sample period, processing trade firms accounted for a large proportion of china’s total trade. because these firms do not need to pay tariffs when importing raw materials and intermediate inputs, there are clear measurement errors in using industry tariffs to measure the level of trade liberalization faced by firms. second, this **explores the mechanism by which intermediate import tariffs affect firms’ labor market power. the reduction of import tariffs on intermediate inputs has both a cost s**ing effect and a factor substitution effect, which affects the firms’ market power by influencing the output scale, the proportion of factor inputs, and the position in the industrial production chain. finally, this **supplements the literature on the decline of labor’s income share and the deviation of labor compensation from labor’s contribution to production. this **has strong policy implications. while promoting trade liberalization, firms’ collusion in the labor market should be limited, and diversified and comprehensive vocational training and public services should be provided. moreover, the labor market should be more mobile and competitive to protect workers’ rights and interests.
创造性的破坏，开发全新的产品，还是提高产品质量？ ——对中国出口企业的创新维度进行核算。
creative destruction, new varieties, or improvements of existing products? innovation accounting of chinese exporting enterprises
[摘要]。创新对全要素生产率的贡献可以通过对新进入者和现有企业的创造性破坏、新产品的开发以及现有企业对现有产品质量的提高来实现，但现有文献缺乏对这三种创新渠道的相对重要性的衡量。本文采用仿真矩估计方法对结构模型参数进行标定，并通过企业从业人员数量的变化间接计算不同创新活动对全要素生产率的贡献。 我们发现，超过60%的全要素生产率增长来自现有企业对现有产品的创新。 然而，新进入者对全要素生产率增长的贡献从172002-2007年增加到32个，增幅为76%98%，表明新进入者在他们的创新活动中变得越来越重要。 此外，出口商通过开发新产品对全要素生产率增长的贡献远大于非出口商。 与出口商相比，非出口国通过创造性破坏对全要素生产率增长的贡献更大。
【abstract】under the new normal, promoting innovation, high-quality development and the transformation of china’s economic development from investment-driven mode to innovation-driven mode is the top priority of national policies. it is necessary for us to decompose the change of total factor productivity (tfp) of china’s economy in detail and sort out the relative importance of different channels of tfp growth in china, so as to provide reference for policies of promoting tfp growth. in addition, because of the relationship between tfp and export decision-**and the relationship between innovation and export, understanding the similarities and differences between export enterprises and non-export enterprises in innovation channels is also of great significance for building a new development pattern of dual circulation. existing literature on the contribution of innovation to tfp carries out discussion mainly from three mechanisms, namely, creative destruction, improvement of enterprises’ product quality and research and development of new products. however, because it is difficult to directly distinguish the three kinds of innovation activities in empirical research, there is a lack of measurement of the relative importance of the three innovation channels. in this **different forms of innovation activities of enterprises are combined with the change of the number of employees in enterprises, and a mapping between them is constructed. by using enterprise labor force data and simulated moments estimation method, this **indirectly calculates the contribution of different innovation activities to tfp through the change of the number of employees in enterprises. we find that the main source of tfp growth in china from 1998 to 2007 was the improvement of incumbent enterprises’ product quality, and its contribution was 75% during 1998–2001, which dropped to 60.1% during 2002–2007. the contribution of new entrants’ creative destruction to tfp growth increased from 17.8% during 1998–2001 to 27.3% during 2002–2007, and the contribution of new entrants’ r&d of brand-new products increased from 0.17% to 5.69%, indicating that new entrants were more active in creative destruction and r&d of brand-new products during 2002–2007. furthermore, we discuss the relative importance of different sources of tfp growth of export enterprises and non-export enterprises. the difference between export enterprises and non-export enterprises in innovation is that the contribution of export enterprises to tfp growth is far greater than that of non-export enterprises in terms of r&d of brand-new products. compared with export enterprises, non-export enterprises contribute more to tfp growth through creative destruction. the reason may be that high-productivity enterprises, involved in international trade, h**e more opportunities to learn foreign advanced technologies, so that their success rate of developing brand-new products and the quality of their brand-new products are improved. oriented to foreign markets, export enterprises focus on the needs of the international market more than on domestic demand when developing new products. compared with previous literature, this **has contributions in the following three aspects. first, researchers in the field of international trade h**e put forward many mechanisms for trade to promote productivity, but the importance of these mechanisms is not clear. this **indirectly calculates the contribution of different innovation activities to tfp through the change of the number of employees, so that we can understand the relative importance of these mechanisms. second, this **builds on existing literature on the sources of economic growth in china, and specifically answers the question of how innovative activities promote the redistribution of labor factors among enterprises. third, this **contributes to measuring the value of innovation. this **has certain significance for understanding the growth source of tfp and the relationship between employment and innovation, promoting the scientific formulation of china’s scientific and technological innovation policy and building china’s strength in science and technology in a way which is suitable for china’s national conditions.
多产品企业的外部需求、竞争策略和出口行为。
foreign demand, competitive strategy and export beh**ior of multi-product firms
[摘要]。本文参考 Mayer 等人（2016）尽可能构建外生外需指数，研究外需对采用质量竞争和成本竞争策略的多产品企业出口行为的差异影响效应及机制。 本文在阐述相关典型事实、梳理理论机理的基础上，提出研究假设，并基于2000—2013年中国工业企业数据库和中国海关数据库的匹配数据进行实证检验。 研究结论表明，正（负）外需变化导致多产品企业采取质量竞争策略，增加（减少）其核心出口产品**，增加（减少）出口产品范围，扩大（减少）出口产品分布的分散度。 外部需求的变化对采用成本竞争策略的多产品企业的出口行为具有相反的影响。 上述结论在改变外需计算方法、考虑内生性问题、消除极值等鲁棒性检验中仍然有效。 作用机理的分析和检验表明，外需的变化改变了目的地企业面临的市场竞争程度。 采用质量竞争策略的企业主要应对核心产品质量的变化，而采用成本竞争策略的企业主要通过改变核心产品的成本来应对外部需求的变化。 本文为多产品企业有效应对外部需求变化、做出正确的出口行为决策、促进高质量发展奠定了理论基础，并提供了政策启示。
【abstract】since the global financial crisis in 2008, the growth rate of china’s exports has slowed down significantly. the **erage annual growth rate of exports during 2009–2018 was 6.95%, which was much lower than the **erage annual growth rate of exports (28.47%) during the period before wto accession and the financial crisis (2002–2008). the weak external demand from developed countries caused by the financial crisis was one of the main factors for the rapid decline of china’s export growth. in recent years, the increasing trend of trade protectionism and counter-globalization, such as brexit and the revitalizing of us manufacturing, has further exacerbated the uncertainty of china’s exports to developed markets. this **intended to study how the external demand of export destinations affected the export beh**iors of chinese firms. this **calculated external demand at the firm-destination-year level based on total imports at the destinations (excluding china’s exports), an indicator that is not influenced by the exporting firms, thus ensuring the exogeneity of the variable of external demand. according to stylized facts, external demand variations h**e opposite statistical relationships with the export beh**iors of multi-product firms adopting quality-competitive and cost-competitive strategies. therefore, this **aimed to investigate the differential effects of external demand on the export beh**iors of multi-product firms adopting quality-competitive and cost-competitive strategies and the mechanisms. an empirical study was conducted based on matched data from the china industry business performance database and the chinese customs database from 2000–2013. the findings showed that positive (negative) external demand variations led multi-product firms with the quality-competitive strategy to increase (decrease) the price of their core export products, increase (decrease) the range of export products, and extend (decrease) the distribution dispersion of their export products to a greater extent; and the external demand variations had exactly the opposite effect on the export beh**iors of multi-product firms with the cost-competitive strategy. the above findings still held in the robustness tests such as changing the method of calculating external demand, considering the endogeneity problem and excluding extreme values. the mechanism of action analysis and tests showed that external demand variations changed the degree of competition in the destination market faced by firms, with positive external demand increasing the degree of market competition and negative external demand decreasing the degree of market competition; and firms adopting the quality-competitive strategy responded to external demand variations mainly by changing the quality of their core products, while firms adopting the cost-competitive strategy responded to the variations in the cost of their core products. this **found that the export beh**iors of firms with different competitive strategies are opposite, which revealed that when responding to external demand, firms should first identify whether they adopted quality- or cost-competitive strategies and make corresponding decisions on export beh**iors based on those strategies.
人民币汇率与中国企业对外直接投资：服务型投资视角.
renminbi exchange rate and chinese firms’ outward direct investment: from the perspective of distribution odi
[摘要]。本文研究了汇率变化对企业对外直接投资的影响，发现人民币贬值不仅促进了出口，也促进了对外直接投资。 这种现象与大多数国家关于本国货币贬值阻碍投资的调查结果相反。 本文从服务型投资的角度来说明这一现象。 服务型投资具有降低跨境通信成本和国内分销成本可变成本的特点; 与基于生产的投资相比，它具有较低的固定投资成本。 因此，对于生产率高的企业来说，服务投资是实现利润最大化的最佳选择，因此服务投资成为我国对外直接投资的重要组成部分。 由于人民币贬值是出口的辅助而不是替代，人民币贬值不仅促进了出口，而且促进了一流的服务型投资。 本文丰富了对汇率变化对中国境外投资影响的理解。
【abstract】outward direct investment (odi) is usually found to be hampered by home currency depreciation in most countries while export is encouraged. this article shows the opposite findings concerning china that odi increases in responses to renminbi depreciation. distribution odi helps reduce cross-border communication costs and other variable costs that incur in export and lower fixed costs compared with non-distribution (production) odi. thus, only the most productive firms opt to engage in production odi whereas less productive firms, such as many chinese enterprises, opt to engage in distribution odi. in this regard, distribution odi is an auxiliary rather than a substitute to export. the article enriches our understanding of the nexus among odi, export, and exchange rate movement.
中国—东盟自由区的经济影响和扶贫效果.
china-asean free trade area: economic influence and poverty reduction effect
[摘要]。中国-东盟自由贸易区是世界上人口最多的自由贸易区，也是全球GDP第三大经济合作区。 自贸协定成员大多为发展中国家，面临着经济发展和消除贫困的共同挑战。 中国—东盟自由贸易区（CAFTA）的建立不仅具有巨大的经济影响，而且具有至关重要的减贫效果。 自2002年协议首次签署以来，中国-东盟自由区在投资、投资和基础设施建设等领域达成了多项经济合作协议，促进了投资和投资的自由化，促进了中国和东盟的经济增长，促进了世界扶贫事业的发展。 本文回顾了中国—东盟自由贸易区的建立过程，梳理了自贸区在投资和双方基础设施建设合作领域的促进措施，分析了中国与东盟国家在投资和投资方面的发展现状和特点，以及其经济影响和减贫效果。 最后，阐述了自贸区存在的主要问题，并提出了相应的政策建议。 未来，推进世界互联互通和投资自由化将继续是世界减贫的良方。
【abstract】the china-asean free trade area (cafta) is the most populous free trade area in the world and the third largest economic cooperation area in the world. most cafta member countries are developing countries and face the common challenge of economic development and poverty eradication. the establishment of the cafta not only bears huge economic significance, but also has a crucial poverty reduction effect. since 2002, when china and the asean signed an agreement to establish the cafta, a number of economic cooperation agreements h**e been reached in the fields of trade, investment, and infrastructure construction, which h**e contributed to the liberalization of trade and investment, the economic growth of china and asean countries and the progress in poverty eradication. this article reviews the establishment of the cafta, summarizes the measures in trade and investment promotion and the cooperation in infrastructure construction.; it analyzes the status quo of trade and investment between china and asean countries, the economic influence and poverty reduction effect of the cafta. finally, the article elaborates on the main challenges facing the cafta and puts forward policy suggestions. in the future, promotion of global connectivity and liberalization of trade and investment will remain a very effective way to reduce poverty.
工业企业的产能利用率测量和生产率估算。
capacity utilization rate measurement and productivity estimation for industrial firms
[摘要]。内容提要：准确衡量产能利用率是理解和解决产能过剩问题的关键。 本文基于企业层面资本折旧率与产能利用率的对应关系，将产能利用率的作用引入生产函数估计框架，并提出了一种同时估计产能利用率和生产率的方法。 该方法明确界定了产能利用率的概念，具有广泛的适用性。 本文采用该方法对1998—2007年和2011—2013年中国工业企业产能利用率进行了估算，结果表明：1）忽视产能利用率变化低估了中国工业企业总体生产率水平;2）2007年前，我国工业企业产能利用率总体呈上升趋势，但随后出现下降;3）不同性质的企业具有高度的异质性，生产率较高、人均资本存量较低、出口产出比较高、利润率较高的企业往往具有较高的产能利用率。
【abstract】summary: overcapacity of specific industries, such as steel and coal, has been viewed as one of the most important and extensively discussed economic issues of china. the main feature of overcapacity is a massive amount of idling capacity, often considered to be a sub-optimal situation. the overcapacity of the steel industry is also closely related to low export price. therefore, it turns out to be the most common fuse of trade disputes between china and developed economies, such as the u.s. and european union. since the late 1990s, the chinese government has initiated five rounds of policies aiming to tackle overcapacity. however, overcapacity keeps emerging periodically in some specific industries despite government’s efforts. since 2012, reducing overcapacity of particular industries has been listed as one of the primary economic goals of the chinese government. by definition, overcapacity is a low level of capacity utilization. therefore, the key to understanding overcapacity is to precisely measure capacity utilization rate. however, current methods of measurement, such as data envelopment analysis and stochastic production frontiers, are far from satisfaction because both concepts are used to define overcapacity or their underlying assumptions. based on the definition of greenwood et al. (1988) and the conceptual framework of ackerberg et al. (2015), we developed a new method to measure capacity utilization rate. we defined the capacity utilization rate as capital utilization intensity and incorporated flexible capacity utilization rate into the production function estimation framework. our underlying assumption is that higher capacity utilization leads to higher depreciation rate of capital. thus, we can use capital depreciation rate as a proxy variable to estimate capacity utilization rate and total productivity factor simultaneously. our method requires weaker assumptions, offers a more precise and intuitive characterization of overcapacity, and is more amenable to various extensions. empirically, we applied our method to chinese industrial enterprise database. collected and maintained by the national bureau of statistics, the database provides the most comprehensive micro-level information of chinese industrial firms. it contains information on depreciation as well as inputs and outputs information for production function estimation. we estimated the capacity utilization rate and total factor productivity of chinese industrial firms from 1998 to 2007 and from 2011 to 2013. our results show that ignoring flexible capacity utilization would overestimate the elasticity of labor input on output and underestimate the elasticity of capital input. for most industries, this will lead to underestimation of firm-level productivity. our results suggest that productivity of chinese industrial firms has increased in the sample period. compared with estimates of previous methods of capacity utilization, our estimates are much closer to the estimates obtained via direct investigation and more consistent with the macroeconomic background. chinese industrial firms experienced an overall rise in capacity utilization rate from 1998 to 2007 and a drop around 2012. we also explored the variations in capacity utilization across firms. firms with higher productivity, lower capital intensity, higher export intensity and profit ratio are associated with higher capacity utilization rate. foreign-owned firms h**e the highest capacity utilization while state-owned enterprises h**e the lowest one. we also observed substantial regional variations in capacity utilization across provinces. the policy implication of the results is that to tackle overcapacity efficiently, policymakers should take into account the heterogeneity of overcapacity along different dimensions. the most important contribution of this **lies in developing a new method of capacity utilization and utilization-adjusted total productivity factor. there are still a lot of controversies on the causes of and solutions to china’s overcapacity problem. this **tries to offer a benchmark framework to understand all these issues. we also provided some tentative and descriptive evidence to explore the variations in capacity utilization. future research agenda concerning the mechanisms that give rise to overcapacity and the evaluation of related policies could be carried out based on the estimation strategy and results of this **
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